This year, the stainless steel market was basically in a low shock except for a big market in May. The new production capacity continues to be released, but compared with last year, the total supply has also decreased, the market demand is still moderate, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased. However, the imbalance between supply and demand is still the fundamental reason that restricts the low price of stainless steel. Traders' loss and bankruptcy risks have risen to steel mills, and the risks of mainstream steel mills have intensified, so it is urgent to transform.

For 2015, the foreign economy will develop in a favorable direction, the domestic macro-economy will remain stable, and the big economic environment will not change much. Affected by Indonesia's mine ban, the performance of laterite nickel ore and ferronickel will be slightly better than this year's. The cost support of stainless steel is strong, and it is more likely that the spot price of the market will be slightly better than that of several years. It is expected that the spot price of the market will reach a high point in the first quarter or the third quarter of next year, and the average price of 304 cold rolling will remain at 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton.

In 2014, China and even Asia still use ferronickel to smelt stainless steel, and the proportion of ferronickel used by some large enterprises is also increasing. At the same time, China's ferronickel production capacity has entered an intensive period since this year, and it is estimated that the new production capacity will be about 660,000 tons in 2014-2015. According to the statistics of China United Steel, in 2014, the output of ferronickel in China will reach 487,000 tons. It is expected that the total amount of metal will decrease again in 2015, especially the decrease of high ferronickel production will be greater than that of ground ferronickel production.

After Indonesia banned the export of raw ore, the import of China's laterite nickel ore decreased rapidly (according to the statistics of this website, the import of China's nickel ore was 71.18 million tons in 2013, and it is estimated that the import of China's nickel ore will be 49-50 million tons in 2014), especially the laterite nickel ore imported from Indonesia. The Philippines has become the largest importer of laterite nickel ore in China, but the nickel content in Philippine nickel ore is generally low (Figure 12). Even though the annual import of nickel ore in the Philippines has increased by 10 million tons, and 1.5% of the grade minerals have obviously increased than before, it still cannot make up for the gap in Indonesia. It is expected that in 2015, domestic high-grade nickel ores will show obvious destocking trend.

China's stainless steel products continue to show a net export state. However, compared with last year, the import and export volume of stainless steel in China is increasing this year. The main reason is that, on the one hand, foreign economies are gradually improving, especially the US economy is recovering strongly, and the euro zone economy has bottomed out and rebounded; On the other hand, although China's economy is declining, it is maintaining stability and the demand for stainless steel is growing slowly.

For next year, the trend of China's economic stability will not change. At present, the national interest rate reduction policy is beneficial to the stainless steel industry. At the same time, the pace of foreign economic recovery may be accelerated, and the downstream demand will continue to improve. The overall economy is developing in a positive direction. In view of this, this website expects that stainless steel will continue to be in a net export state, and the import and export of stainless steel in China may have a good performance.

To sum up, this website believes that in 2015, China will continue to be in a reform year, and the government investment will continue to slow down, and the growth rate of stainless steel exports will slow down. However, compared with other steel-using countries in the world, the per capita consumption of stainless steel in China still has a certain gap. Developing the application of stainless steel in other fields (industrial materials (energy-saving, environmental protection), building decoration, rail transit, automobiles) may bring new opportunities for the future development of stainless steel. It is expected that the high point of stainless steel will appear in the first or third quarter next year, and the average price will remain between 17,000 and 18,000.